最近の成果

Ose, T., H. Endo and T. Nakaegawa, 2024: Emergence of future sea-level pressure patterns in recent summertime East Asia, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 102. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2024-012.

Kawakami, Y, H. Nakano, L.S. Urakawa, T. Toyoda, K. Sakamoto, S. Nishikawa, T. Sugiyama, M. Kurogi, Y. Ishikawa, K. Sato, and G. Yamanaka , 2024: Future changes in marine heatwaves based on high‐resolution ensemble projections for the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Journal of Oceanography, 80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-024-00714-y.

Kusunoki, S., T. Nakaegawa, and R. Mizuta, 2024: Evaluation of precipitation simulated by the atmospheric global model MRI-AGCM3.2, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 102. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2024-013.

Wang C.-C., T.-Y. Yeh, C.-S. Chang, M.-S. Li, K. Tsuboki, and C.-H. Liu, 2023: A modeling study of an extreme rainfall event along the northern coast of Taiwan on 2 June 2017, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 501-521. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-501-2023.

Miura, Y., and T. Nakaegawa, 2024: Long-Term Experimental Evaluation of a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model From a Hydrological Perspective, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129, e2023JD038786. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038786.

Flood, V.A, K. Strong, C.H. Whaley, K.A. Walker, T. Blumenstock, J.W. Hannigan, J. Mellqvist, J. Notholt, M. Palm, A.N. Röhling, S. Arnold, S. Beagley, R.-Y. Chien, J. Christensen, M. Deushi, S. Dobricic, X. Dong, J.S. Fu, M. Gauss, W. Gong, J. Langner, K.S. Law, L. Marelle, T. Onishi, N. Oshima, et.al., 2024: Evaluating modelled tropospheric columns of CH4, CO, and O3 in the Arctic using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 24, 1079–1118. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1079-2024.

山崎剛，川瀬宏明，橋本健, 2023: 5㎞メッシュ大規模地域気候アンサンブルシミュレーションによる降雪日数・極端降雪の将来変化, 東北の雪と生活, 38, 23-28. https://www.seppyo.org/~tohoku/journal_contents/SnowTohoku_no38_2023.pdf.

水田亮, 2023: 大規模アンサンブル気候シミュレーションにおける地球温暖化による大雨の変化, 混相流, 37, 365-375. https://doi.org/10.3811/jjmf.2023.T012.

Tsujino, H., H. Nakano, K. Sakamoto, L.S. Urakawa, K. Toyama, N. Kosugi, Y. Kitamura, M. Ishii, S. Nishikawa, H. Nishikawa, T. Sugiyama, and Y. Ishikawa, 2024: Impact of Increased Horizontal Resolution of an Ocean Model on Carbon Circulation in the North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003720.

Ito, R., Y. Imada, and H. Kawase, 2023: Regional characteristics of attribution risk on the record-high-temperature event of 2022 rainy season in Japan, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 104, E2121-E2126. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0172.1.

Nakaegawa, T., and R.Mizuta, 2023: Future projections of extreme precipitation in Tropical America and Panama under global warming based on 150-year continuous simulations using 20-km and 60-km atmospheric general circulation models, International Journal of Climatology, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8261.

Zhou, X., T. Sato and S. Li, 2023: Interannual variation of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern modulated by Ural blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation under changing sea ice conditions, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 40. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00591-x.

Li, S., T. Sato, T. Nakamura, and W. Guo, 2023: East Asian summer rainfall stimulated by subseasonal Indian monsoonal heating, Nature Communications, 14, 5932. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41644-5.

Adachi,K., Y. Tobo, N. Oshima, A. Yoshida, S. Ohata, R. Krejc, A. Massling, H. Skov, and M. Koike, 2023: Composition and mixing state of individual aerosol particles from northeast Greenland and Svalbard in the Arctic during spring 2018., Atmospheric Environment, 314, 120083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120083.

Takaya et al., 2023: Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12, 182-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003.

Law, K. S., J. Liengaard Hjorth, J. B. Pernov, C. H. Whaley, H. Skov, M. Collaud Coen, J. Langner, S. R. Arnold, D. Tarasick, J. Christensen, M. Deushi, P. Effertz, G. Faluvegi, M. Gauss, U. Im, N. Oshima, et al., 2023: Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 50.

Takaya, Y., K. K. Komatsu, N. G. Ganeshi, T. Tokyoda, and H. Hasumi, 2023: A sub-monthly timescale causality between snow cover and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere inferred by Liang–Kleeman information flow analysis. Climate Dynamics.

Komatsu, K., Y. Takaya, T. Toyoda, and H. Hasumi, 2023: A Submonthly Scale Causal Relation between Snow Cover and Surface Air Temperature over the Autumnal Eurasian Continent, Journal of Climate, 36, 4863–4877. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0827.1.

Ito, R., C. Suzuki, and S Sugimoto, 2023: Variability of Future Increases in Summertime Extreme High Temperatures on the Kanto Plain, Japan, SOLA, 19, 194-201. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2023-025.

Law, K. S., J. Liengaard Hjorth, J. B. Pernov, C. H. Whaley, H. Skov, M. Collaud Coen, J. Langner, S. R. Arnold, D. Tarasick, J. Christensen, M. Deushi, P. Effertz, G. Faluvegi, M. Gauss, U. Im, N. Oshima, et al., 2023: Arctic Tropospheric Ozone Trends, Geophysical Research Letters, 50. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103096.

Takaya, Y., K. K. Komatsu, H. Hino, and F. Vitart 2023: Information-based Probabilistic Verification Scores for Two-dimensional Ensemble Forecast Data: A Madden-Julian Oscillation Index Example. Monthly Weather Review, 151, 2245-2255. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-23-0003.1.

Tamura, K., and T. Sato, 2023: Localized Strong Warming and Humidification Over Winter Japan Tied to Sea Ice Retreat. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103522. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103522.

Endo, H., 2023; Long-term precipitation changes in the Baiu and Akisame seasons in Japan over the past 120 years (1901-2020). Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 101, 309-322. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2023-019.

Lagare, C., T. Yamazaki, and J. Ito, 2023: Numerical simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Mindanao, Philippines, on 03 May 2017: mesoscale convective systems under weak large-scale forcing. Geoscience Letters, 10, 23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00277-8.

Nihei, Y., K. Oota, H. Kawase, T. Sayama, E. Nakakita, T. Ito, and J. Kashiwada, 2023: Assessment of climate change impacts on river flooding due to Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 using nonglobal warming experiments, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 16. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12919.

Mesta, B., H. Sasaki, T. Nakaegawa, and E. Kentel, 2023: Changes in precipitation climatology for the Eastern Mediterranean using CORDEX RCMs, NHRCM and MRI-AGCM, Atmospheric Research, 272, 106140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106140.

Kawase, H., S. Fukui, M. Nosaka, S. I. Watanabe, K. Otomo, A. Murata, K. Murazaki, and T. Nakaegawa, 2023: Historical regional climate changes in Japan in winter as assessed by a 5-km regional climate model with a land surface process. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 10, 7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00536-4.

Ishizaki, N.H., T. Nakaegawa, R. Pinzón and H. Sasaki, 2023: Factors contributing to morning rain in the upper Río Chagres Basin, Panamá. Frontier in Earth Science, 11:1105013. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1105013.

Hoshino, T., K. Shimizu, M. Hegnauer, and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Return Period of Flood Peak Discharge over The Tokachi River Basin, Northern Japan by Using a Massive Ensemble Climate Dataset. 9th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM9) Proceeding.

Suzuki, A., T. Hoshino, T. Yamamoto, F. Uemura, and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Development of a Prevention Method for Possible Heavy Rainfall Disasters Using Ensemble Climate Database. 9th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM9) Proceeding.

Ohya, Y., and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Characteristics of shape and stagnation of rainfall depending on river basin. 9th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM9) Proceeding.

Mizuta, R., M. Nosaka, T. Nakaegawa, H. Endo, S. Kusunoki, A. Murata, and I. Takayabu, 2022: Extreme precipitation in 150-year continuous simulations by 20-km and 60-km atmospheric general circulation models with dynamical downscaling over Japan by a 20-km regional climate model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 100, 523-532, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-026 .

大屋祐太，宮本真希，山田朋人，2022： 大量アンサンブルデータを用いた北海道周辺で抽出した線状降水帯の多発年・寡少年における夏季総観場の特徴．土木学会論文集B1(水工学)，78(2), I_43-I_48, https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_43 .

宮本真希，山田朋人，2022： 天気図に示された前線に基づく梅雨期における九州地方の降雨の気候特性．土木学会論文集G(環境), 78(5), I_151-I_156, https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejer.78.5_I_151 .

大屋祐太，山田朋人，2022： 北海道周辺における過去・将来気候下での線状かつ停滞性を有する降水帯の出現特性．土木学会論文集G(環境), 78(5), I_225-I_23, https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejer.78.5_I_225.

岡地寛季，山田朋人，2022：暴風下での海面砕波飛沫の粒径分布式の推定．土木学会論文集G(環境), 78(5), I_171-I_177, https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejer.78.5_I_171.

Whaley, C. H., K. S. Law, J. L. Hjorth, H. Skov, S. R. Arnold, J. Langner, J. B. Pernov, G. Bergeron, I. Bourgeois, J. H. Christensen, R.-Y. Chien, M. Deushi, N. Oshima, et al., 2023: Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 23, 637-661, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2022-319.

Kawase, H., S. Fukui, M. Nosaka, S. I. Watanabe, K. Otomo, A. Murata, K. Murazaki, and T. Nakaegawa, 2023: Historical regional climate changes in Japan in winter as assessed by a 5-km regional climate model with a land surface process. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 10, 7, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00536-4.

Abhinav, D., and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Analysis of planetary boundary layer feedbacks on the multiple equilibria of the continental water cycle. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1136, 012012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012012.

Miyamoto, M., and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Points of consideration on identification of the atmospheric fronts depicted on weather charts. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1136, 012023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012023.

Miyazaki, K., T. Hoshino, K. Shimizu, S. shrivastava and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Changes in sediment erosion rate in the Azuma River basin after the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake in 2018. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1136, 012027, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012027.

Ohya,Y, and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Characteristics of Line-shaped RainBands regarding duration, shape, and rainfall intensity in Northern Japan using The Radar/Raingauge-Analyzed Precipitation product. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1136, 012025, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012025.

Sasaki, H., N. N. Ishizaki, A. Murata, H. Kawase, and M. Nosaka, 2022: The Importance of Dynamical Downscaling for Explanations of High Temperature Rises in Winter. SOLA, 19, 9-15, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2023-002.

Hoshino, T., and T. J. Yamada, 2023: Spatiotemporal classification of heavy rainfall patterns to characterize hydrographs in a high-resolution ensemble climate dataset. Journal of Hydrology, 617(B), 128910, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128910.

今田由紀子, 2022: 異常気象 温暖化どれだけ影響？, 朝日新聞, 2022年11月15日

山田朋人, 2022: 温暖化予測に伴った北海道河川における流況の変化, 農業農村工学会, 札幌市・北海道大学学術交流会館, 2022年11月15日

Sugimoto, S., Y. Xue, T. Sato, and H. Takahashi, 2022: Influence of convective processes on Weather Research and Forecasting model precipitation biases over East Asia. Climate Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06587-5.

Ohba, M., R. Arai, T. Sato, M. Imamura and Y. Toyoda, 2022: Projected future changes in water availability and dry spells in Japan: Dynamic and thermodynamic climate impacts. Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100523.

Kanamori, Y., M. Inatsu, R. Tsurumaki, N. Matsuoka, T. Hoshino and T. J. Yamada, 2022: Global Warming Effect and Adaptation for a Flooding Event at Motsukisamu River in Sapporo. SOLA, 18, 249-253, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2022-040.

von Salzen, K., C. H. Whaley, S. C. Anenberg, R. V. Dingenen, Z. Klimont, M. G. Flanner, R. Mahmood, S. R. Arnold, S. Beagley, R.-Y. Chien, J. Christensen, S. Eckhardt, A. M. L. Ekman, N. Oshima, et al., 2022: Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming.　Communications Earth & Environment, 3, 222, https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00555-x .

Kawai, H., K. Yoshida, T. Koshiro and S. Yukimoto, 2022: Importance of Minor-Looking Treatments in Global Climate Models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2022MS003128, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003128.

今田由紀子, 2022: 猛暑の発生確率は「240倍」　スパコン分析で数値化、温暖化の脅威が「自分事」に, 東京新聞朝刊, web版, 2022年9月24日

Kawase, H., Y. Imada and S. Watanabe, 2022: Impacts of historical atmospheric and oceanic warming on heavy snowfall in December 2020 in Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, 127, e2022JD036996, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036996.

Allabakash, S., L. Sanghun, K.-S. Chong, and T. J. Yamada, 2022: Particulate matter concentrations over South Korea. Impact of meteorology and other pollutants, Remote Sensing, 14(19), https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14194849.

今田由紀子, 2022: 今夏の記録的猛暑、温暖化なければ１２００年に１度の極めてまれな現象, 読売新聞オンライン, 2022年9月15日

今田由紀子, 2022: 猛暑発生率　温暖化で２４０倍, 毎日新聞, 2022年9月15日

今田由紀子, 2022: パキスタン「国の１／３冠水」, 朝日新聞, 2022年9月14日

Ushijima, Y., H. Tsujino, K. Sakamoto, M. Ishii, T. Koshiro and N. Oshima, 2022: Effects of Anthropogenic Forcings on Multidecadal Variability of the Sea Level Around the Japanese Coast Simulated by MRI-ESM2.0 for CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL099987, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099987.

Yukimoto, S., N. Oshima, H. Kawai, M. Deushi and T. Aizawa, 2022: Role of Interhemispheric Heat Transport and Global Atmospheric Cooling in Multidecadal Trends of Northern Hemisphere Precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100335.

Kawase, H., Y. Imada, and S. Watanabe, 2022: Impacts of historical atmospheric and oceanic warming on heavy snowfall in December 2020 in Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmosphere, accepted, 49, e2022GL099987, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036996.

今田由紀子, 2022: 今夏の記録的暑さ「温暖化影響」発生確率２４０倍、気象研究所, 共同通信, 2022年9月7日

今田由紀子, 2022: ６月下旬からの猛暑、温暖化で発生確率２４０倍に　気象研などチーム, 毎日新聞, 2022年9月6日

今田由紀子, 2022: 気候革命　この異常気象、地球温暖化のせい？　深刻さ数値化、問題を身近に, 毎日新聞, 2022年9月6日

今田由紀子, 高薮出, 川瀬宏明, 2022: 令和4年6月下旬から7月初めの記録的な高温に地球温暖化が与えた影響に関する研究に取り組んでいます。－イベント・アトリビューションによる速報－, 共同プレスリリース, 文部科学省, 気象研究所, 2022年9月6日

Brown, F., G. A. Folberth, S. Sitch, S. Bauer, M. Bauters, P. Boeckx, A. W. Cheesman, M. Deushi, I. D. Santos, C. Galy-Lacaux, J. Haywood, J. Keeble, L. M. Mercado, F. M. O'Connor, N. Oshima et al., 2022: The ozone–climate penalty over South America and Africa by 2100. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22, 12331-12352, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12331-2022.

神代剛, 2022: 物理的な推定指標を用いて下層雲による温暖化の増幅を初めて説明しました, 共同プレスリリース, 気象研究所, 海洋研究開発機構, https://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Topics/R04/040815/press_040815.html, 2022年8月15日

川合秀明, 2022: 地球の温暖上昇予測に大きなばらつきがあるのはなぜか？-答えは、雲-, 第56回夏季大学, 2022年8月6日

Murata, A., M. Nosaka, H. Sasaki, and H. Kawase, 2022: Dynamic and thermodynamic factors involved in future changes in extreme summertime precipitation in Japan projected by convection-permitting regional climate model simulations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 61, 1201-1217, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0256.1.

Niwano, M., M. Suya, K. Nagaya, S. Yamaguchi, S. Matoba, I. Harada, and N. Ohkawara, 2022: Estimation of seasonal snow mass balance all over Japan using a high-resolution atmosphere-snow model chain. SOLA, 18, 193-198, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2022-031.

Nakaegawa, T., 2022: High-Performance Computing in Meteorology under a Context of an Era of Graphical Processing Units. Computers, 11(7), 114, https://doi.org/10.3390/computers11070114.

Koshiro, T., H. Kawai, and A. T. Noda, 2022: Estimated cloud-top entrainment index explains positive low-cloud-cover feedback. PNAS, 119, e2200635119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200635119.

Kawai, H., T. Koshiro, and S. Yukimoto, 2022: Cloud feedbacks in MRI-ESM2. CAS/JSC WGNE Research Activities in Earth System Modelling, 52, 707-708.

Nakaegawa, T., and K. Murazaki, 2022: Historical trends in climate indices relevant to surface air temperature and precipitation in Japan for recent 120 years. International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7784.

鬼頭昭雄, 2022: 1度上昇で災害頻発、住宅・運輸で温暖化対策, 日本経済新聞, 2022年6月21日

鬼頭昭雄, 2022: 気候変動分野の科学的知見の蓄積について, 令和4年版 国土交通白書 , 2022年6月